RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

beerwithduncan

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beerwithduncan last won the day on May 26 2015

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    Harness Racing,Jumps Racing. All sports, Punting. Fishing and having a beer and a laugh with mates. Background in Journalism. Happy to poke fun at you and myself.

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  1. I'm riding off into the sunset again for another year or two after my short and sweet raid so I will leave you with my input on the flag debate.
  2. Of course Jack,you know best. I know that for a fact. How? Because you told me. Nothing to do with being heard. Negative perspectives have been given regarding Maurice's drive on Shandale. They have been fobbed off as either disgruntled losing punters or amateurs. I believe my perspective is accurate,was put forward articulately and is devoid of emotion. If you disagree, I welcome your perspective. If on the other hand you have absolutely nothing to add,then you may return to your embroidery.
  3. I like betting moves also Kakama. Money speaks all languages and the betting moves are invariably a very good guide. Frustrating when the move does not show up until the race is under way That is especially so if I've got a nice treble going into the third leg. I miss the winner because it appeared to have no hope and I didn't get a chance to save on it as the betting move came so late. I generally bet about $30 into a treble. If the treble pool has over $500 in it I will press on. Many of the midweek trebles in Victoria routinely have two and three x that amount. I turn my nose up at the others.
  4. Very well said Berri. Right on the money.
  5. Midget, You are not the first to notice the never ending line of people named Nigel. I firmly believe the diabolical decision not to cover the magnificent Cheltenham carnival is by far the worst decision made by Trackside since they started broadcasting as action TV in 1992. It's hugely embarrassing that Petone are are so inept they don't appreciate the significance of the carnival. What's next on the agenda? Not providing live coverage of the 2016 Melbourne Cup because it clashes with the Wollomboombaladong 310 metre greyhound dash? Oh well, I'm sure they would provide a replay on the Wednesday.
  6. Is this a website for harness enthusiasts to express their opinions? Are Group 1 races invariably going to attract more interest than others? Is a driver going to stand out if he makes a series of bad decisions on a live chance in a Derby? If opinions are going to be ridiculed because those expressing them are "amateurs" then why have this site? Have you ever witnessed an All Black bomb a vital try or give away crucial points that lost the match? Have you ever commented on what you witnessed? When did you last play for the All Blacks? Is blatant bias helpful when discussing topics? Do you routinely defend "amateur driver" races despite them often being an embarrassment? Is Maurice McKendry a colleague / acquaintance / mate of yours? Just ignore your fear of being confronted by MM. What one word would you use to describe the drive? Are you trying to win brownie points by defending drivers? I'm pretty certain I was complimentary about MM aside from this one drive. Did you notice that? I've been a keen student of form since I first started betting in the 1970's. I closely review tens of thousands of races every year. I possess an analytical mind and appreciate the importance of speed maps. I'm certain the All Stars rely on speed maps also. Not sure which speed map MM was using for the Great Northern Derby. He needs to return in for a refund As a professional,here's some questions for you Tim. 1) Do the All Stars like to control group one races when they have multiple runners? 2) Where is the best place to do that in a race? 3) Were Lazarus and Chase The Dream the best two horses in the GN Derby? 4) Is Natalie Rasmussen in outstanding driving form? 5) Does Chase The Dream like to lead? 6) Would Natalie or Mark hand up to the other as soon as they came calling? 7) Would either hand up to Shandale and give away control of the G1? 8) Have either done that in any other G1's this season? 9) Could Shandale realistically sit outside either of those All Stars and still be there at the finish? 10) Did the negatives hugely outweigh the positives for MM to fight all the All Stars early? 11) Where did Lazarus and Chase The Dream finish in the GN Derby? 12) Where did Shandale finish? Almost every way I mapped out the Great Northern Derby the best result I could come up with for Shandale was third placing. That would only happen if everything fell into place. It needed an accident to occur for the Derby not to be won by an All Star. Without being wise after the event I thought they would quinella the race and possibly even trifecta it. I included several for third and fourth including Shandale,Walkinshaw,Buster Brady and Stroke of Luck. I actually profited from MM's poor drive on Shandale so my perspective of it is not motivated by a losing bet.
  7. Mt Smart Cats, I would never suggest Maurice is not good enough or is past it. I have considerable respect for him. He's still one of our top ten drivers and that is no accident. In the Great Northern Derby however MM was out thought and out driven by a team riding the crest of a wave especially in Group 1 races. If there is any driver in NZ that knows what it feels like to chase home a Purdon horse in an elite race it Maurice McKendry. In this very race back in 1988 MM drove Dillon Dean to a gallant second behind Godfrey a Barry Purdon runner. Barry as well as Mark have great records in this race. So setting the stage. MM knew he was up against a machine that is almost impossible to beat when it matters lately. Did Maurice get intimidated by the All Stars and it impact on his better judgement ? Just look at the two main All Stars. Lazarus the 1.20 fav for the race was drawn 2. What chance did MM have of getting past him and leading? Zero chance is the only correct answer. Then you have Chase The Dream drawn one place inside MM. You know that the All Stars like to control races and you also know Chase The Dream likes to lead. Did you watch the 150k Group 1 Sires on cup day? Chase The Dream drew 10 but still managed to lead. Lazarus was all out to beat Chase The Dream. These two have a pattern of leading and trailing in big races. Chase The Dream / Natalie Rasmussen was never going to let Shandale from outside her get in front of them. That would lose control of a major race and I can't recall the last time that happened to the All Stars. http://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gas/wa/r/infohorsewahr/wsd01x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=216466 So MM on Shandale was never going to lead. Do we agree? What realistic hope did Shandale have of sitting outside either Chase The Dream or Lazarus and still be a contender in the home straight? I say zero hope. Why then would you use up so much energy and your chances by doing what he did? On the off chance he fluked the one out and one back trail? I believe the only hope Shandale had was to drop back and look for cover behind the right horse in midfield. Instead he was caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. He went forward early and tried to race each one of the All Stars as if the race was 1200 metres not 2700 metres. Complete suicide that was only ever going to end in tears. I honestly believe in all the years I've been watching MM in feature races his drive on Shandale is his worst. I'm not being wise after the event. Just reading a predictable race taking everything into consideration. http://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gas/wa/r/infohorsewahr/wsd01x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=224349 MM will bounce back I'm certain as will Shandale but lets not sugercoat what unfolded in the GN Derby. A very bad night at the office for MM.
  8. Pretty disillusioned with Australian gallops meetings. I spend a fair bit of time sorting out trebles etc but often find horses winning that I'd struggle to find even if I had a crystal ball. I'd be taking it back saying it must be broken. When you see betting moves with obvious inside knowledge on many of these winners,you're left scratching your head. The betting move was absent today but the head scratching was even worse. Race 2 at Ballarat. Kartem Around Boy. Paying $96. To say it bolted in would be an understatement. It absolutely annihilated the field and won like a 1.04 shot. It's last two starts it was paying $61 and $151. Settled last,no chance...and bucked, pulled up. Write up says "cannot make a case" They won't get another penny of mine. That was the straw that broke the camels back. I will stick to the trots or jumps racing.
  9. Could they be any more farking pathetic? After all these years of broadcasting and they still don't understand the importance of live action. It's a disgrace and whoever made that decision should resign as he / she has absolutely no understanding and respect for feature jumps races. With friends like that,jumps racing needs no enemies. As per usual NZ TAB, thanks for nothing!
  10. Sounds good meomy but realistically what hope do you have of gaining Police involvement in the real world? I know of two people, who's houses were burgled in Auckland in the last 12 months. One was told that unfortunately there would be no Police attendance at the property concerned and the other was just as farcical. A single young Police Officer arrived at the property four days after the burglary with notebook in hand. No fingerprints were taken. Informed the victim to install a burglar alarm and that he should keep better track of the serial numbers on the appliances stolen in the burglary. Also told the victim there was very little hope of solving the crime. That statement is conclusively proven in the stats. Was upfront enough to state that property crime is a low priority. I know a family who lost their teenage daughter to cancer. Two days after her funeral, several young drunken thugs were walking past their property and decided to jump all over her car which was subsequently written off. This scene was witnessed by two neighbours who rang the Police and gave them descriptions of all four offenders along with their direction of travel. The Police were unable to attend and 20 minutes later and a third phone call was made from an elderly lady who had just witnessed the same louts uproot her letterbox and throw it into a nearby creek. Still no Police attendance. I recently spoke to a neighbour about an experience he had with the Police. His house was burgled. Among the items stolen were two credit cards. One of those credit cards was used at a nearby service station on the afternoon of the burglary. He gave that information to the Police and requested an officer attend the service station and uplift CCTV coverage of the offender (s). Police informed him they had no available staff and advised him to uplift the video coverage himself. This is a man who has served his country and never been on the wrong side of the law. He's has paid all his taxes for 35 years. He went to the service station himself and was told that only the Police could uplift the video coverage and the Police know that. Eventually after numerous phone calls etc etc etc the service station handed over a one frame grainy shot of a man that good have been Father Christmas but then again he could have been Kunta Kinte. Still think the Police would devote time and resources to voting form thefts from letterboxes? I hope you're right meomy but I'm not so confident.
  11. Dear Midget, Leggy is busy on another urgent call so I will answer your question. Your husband is in the process of finding his Australian roots and seemingly enjoys black suspenders. Have you checked his underwear drawer recently? Before doing so I advise you have a support person near by.
  12. Does NZ have a history of referendum voting papers being stolen? I have heard about sporadic examples over the decades but nothing as widespread as what's occurring now with the flag voting papers. This referendum is a different ball game. We've had our voting papers stolen as has almost every house on our street and the streets either side. I've spoken to friends in the Takapuna,Browns Bay,Glenfield and Torbay areas and have been told of many examples of voting form thefts. If you haven't had yours stolen the chances are you know someone that has. From where I sit,it's the pro change lobby behind these thefts. The people voting for the status quo are reportedly heading for a comfortable victory in the referendum according to previous polls etc. They are not desperate and appear to be all about integrity. Stealing the votes of others just does not fit with that ethos. Why steal voting papers that were probably going to vote in your favour? The pro change lobby on the other hand have been working overtime. Some 'independent' Australian ffs took out a very expensive advertisement in the NZ Herald promoting changing the flag allegedly because that will help Australia dump their flag later down the track. In a pigs ear. That is more than ironic as John Key supporter and New Zealander of the year Richie McCaw just happened to join in the debacle recently stating he wanted change because our flag is to similar to the Australians. How many private Kiwi's devoid of bias would pay big money out of their own pocket to advertise in a major Australian metropolitan newspaper to try and influence their referendum on the off chance it may assist our own at some later time? I'd pick the number was somewhere around zero. This flag debacle has been a divisive "them and us" situation which unfortunately is something this Government has become well known for. I prefer the flag to stay the same. Whatever happens I don't feel the money that has been spent on it can possibly be justified when there are so many other areas especially in the health sector etc that are suffering due to under funding. The actions of John Key loudly state he feels the flag is more important than what's happening in most NZ Hospitals to many Kiwi's on a daily basis. Does he even give a monkey's toss about that or is it just not sexy enough for him? Unfortunately most Kiwi's only find that out the hard way akin to when you need the police after your home is burgled. Looking forward very much to this "referendum" being done and dusted.
  13. Happy birthday mate. Hope it's a good one for you.
  14. Hope so. It's a magnificent carnival with fantastic stake money. They treat jumps racing with great respect. Not just some tired old horses who can't keep up on the flat and irritate Trackside because they can fit at least two greyhound races in while one steeplechase is being run. I imagine it will be a tough carnival for Tony McCoy to watch.