RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

classic one

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  1. I think you got the wrong horse. The race was one by Neopolitan who is by Denman a son of Lonhro. Dam a smart NZ performed horse called Vienetta Pretty Punk came forth. Race 1 - 16:02 - 2YO HANDICAP (Morphettville R1) 1100 m Stake: $43,000 Track: SOFT Weather: OVERCAST # Name Jockey/Driver/Trainer Win Place 6 Neapolitan Dom Tourneur 9 She Ra Joe Bowditch 11 Super Crunch Justin Potter Bet Type Runners Dividend ALSO RAN: 8-Pretty Punk-Clare Lindop(3.5L), 12-Vienna Miss-Jamie Kah(4.6L), 13-Ghenwaa-Dean Yendall(4.7L), 5-The Big Cheese-Josh Cartwright (a1.5)(5.3L), 7-Cerro Blanco-Zac Spain (a3)(6.2L), 4-Rancho Relaxo-Jason Holder(6.9L), 3-Neva Doubt Us-Jake Toeroek(11L), 1-Alpha Romeo-Shayne Cahill(11.9L). Note: Numbers shown are the distance from winner in lengths. Winning Margins: 1-1/2L, Hd, 2L Owners: K J Taylor & Mrs J F Taylor Trainer: Phillip Stokes, Morphettville Breeding: 2 f Denman-Viennetta (NZ)
  2. I agree the Machiavellian line stallions we have are great prospects. Per Incanto just had another great weekend with Tennessee remaining unbeaten. Just checked Jakkalberry's pedigree on www.Arion.co.nz and he would have to have the best 1st dam of any Group One winning stallion at stud in NZ. I think these stallions work well with most broodmare lines and especially with the large amount of Danzig line mares we have like Volksraad, Danehill lines etc.
  3. First Season 1. Zacinto 2. Cape Blanco Second Season 1. Per Incanto 2. Makfi
  4. Pentire sired about 290 foals in Japan and 4 stakes winners. He also stood in Germany.
  5. Huey you are way out on a number of fronts. 1.SW over mares served has never been a guide. S/W To foals or S/W to Runners. 2.Yes Pentire shuttled for many years to Japan. 3.Savabeel has served his biggest books of mares the last 3 to 4 years and Pentire his smallest. Why would you measure SW of crops that have not raced yet etc. The last 4 years ( excluding this year ) Savabeel has served 721 mares and Pentire only 197. So the Savabeel 1431 mares served take off four years is 710 mares served for 470 foals. And Pentire 1444 mares served take off four years is 1247 mares for 859 foals.( these are NZ served mares and not what her served in Japan). Check the SW and you are way out Huey. Less the crops that are not born or have not raced or have not completed there 3yo year I have Savabeel at 8.2% SW to Foals and about 10% SW to Runners. With Pentire in total worldwide I have him at 3.3% SW to Foals and about 4.2% SW to Runners. I have not done the full analysis if you take off Pentire's foals that were bred in Japan etc but the numbers would not change what I have put down much give that he has got higher SW to foals and runners in NZ compared to when he stood outside NZ. Look forward to peoples thoughts on my logic.
  6. Huey I think your are wrong on your facts in saying 'Savabeel has left 42 SW serving 13 less mares than Pentire has in his NZ career". Are you comparing SW to foals of Savabeel versus Pentire in NZ?
  7. Huey I think you have got your numbers wrong versus Savabeel. You better recheck them.
  8. I agree with Fitzy. But an analysis of what they have recently averaged is not the only factor. 'Some' 15.3 shorter stallions leave smaller horses that are too much of a risk to even take to Karaka so are not put in. I am not saying smaller horses won't end up running but it always helps at Karaka to have a bit of leg and size.
  9. Tennessee by Per Incanto has a smart win in first face at Ruakaka. Look forward to plenty more
  10. This fella is going well. Magnum and Terms Of Reference last start winners in Singapore. Bob Of the Head a winner in Australia today. This weekend Da Cielo and Rocanto back racing. The Machiavellian line sure does work well in Australia and New Zealand. Does anyone know of some other nice ones in New Zealand coming up?
  11. I say wait as long as you can which will depend on if you mare is in foal or not before you make a choice. My logic is only Savabeel, Tavistock and Per Incanto will be fully booked this season. Take a look at which stallions start getting the results just as Per Incanto and Tavistock did last year and anyone who went to them last year at last years service fee have done well. Some of us did it when High Chaparral went from $12k In NZ then to $80k and more in Aus the year after. Another thing I like doing is seeing the first foals of stallions who stood their first year the year before( eg 2014 First season at stud) You can start to get an idea of what types they will breed. Back to the Danske mares, sometimes having only the mares sire is not enough to give a strong answer. Is she big or small? What is the rest of the female line from? Going back to another post I made, Danehill over Danehill has not worked and neither has Danzig over Danzig. So go for Mr Prospector line, Or other line of ND etc.
  12. The stats on Danehill lines over Zabeel mares are quite good but in is not as simple as that. I check the sirelines stats with all mares or the broodmare side lines with all stallions to get a better comparison. Save yourself time and ask any stud for the stats. ( then double check them if you can). And Zabeel mares have probably been given the better chance being a champion stallion and no doubt about it, he is a top broodmare sire. But as I have mentioned Danehill over Danehill has failed and Danzig over Danzig has failed also. Depending on what you want to breed I believe the true race ability of a stallion is important and the strength of the female line.
  13. I agree on the power of the sex balanced cross and have enjoyed reading expert Ken Mclean's "Designing Speed in the racehorse". Sometimes a comment on a particular cross must be expanded fully rather than a brief comment as to not confuse the beginner breeder and I agree with Swynford on his expanded comments. Progeny from Danehill sire line stallions over Danehill sireline mares clearly has not worked. This is not the same as Danehill through a son and Danehill through a daughter, a sex balanced cross which Synford has shown in the two pedigrees examples above. Shootoff,the first one has Sir T through a son and daughter, and Nijinsky through a son and daughter. Astaire, the second example has Danehill through a son and daughter, and Kahyasi through two daughters.
  14. I enjoy reading this forum and others. Thoroughbred Village Fourm on breeding has the following stats on inbreeding to Danehill as at May 2015 2,881 Foals of racing age 1,245 Starters 546 Winners 28 Stakes winners That is a poor 1% SW to foals of racing age. So could someone explain why they think this proven poor cross is a good cross. We have a large amount of data rather than a small one to make our analysis on. I have also checked other various sites and they show the same poor result. While we can point out the success of a particular cross we must also look at a 99% that are not. Let's see what some breeders think.
  15. Just looking to ask the mare owners who have been breeding for many years if they think the stallions from 30 to 40 years ago were more sounder and tougher than we have today? Did the stallion who stood at stud 30 to 40 years ago have more race day starts than the stallions at stud today?